Yong-Hong WANG, Yan-Nan LU, E-Jiang DING
理论物理通讯. 1994, 21(2): 161-166.
The burst process in a load-carrying bundle of fibres is investigated. The fluctuation of the time for the last failure is studied and proved not to be critical. A new scaling relation D(Δ) ∝ Δ-1.5 exp(-Δη) near the last failure is obtained analytically. Three methods of the prediction for the last failure are proposed. The method by the first series is applicable only when we do the forecast very near the last failure. The predictions by the exponents in the time windows and by the new scaling relation are feasible for short and long term forecast, respectively.